The reversal has already begun… but it cannot be seen yet in the price indices. Since September, the market has clearly begun tougher, and we can observe a volume collapse, i.e. a diminution of the turnover figures. Especially in the second-hand market.
Today, only high-quality products (well located, high floor, without a need for alterations) sell easily, at price levels that continue to increase. So that one may have the wrong perception that the market is OK. One needs to see that the mean selling delay has reached 8 weeks, to be compared to 4 weeks in 2004. During the previous depression, 15 years ago, the price drop became apparent only in mid-1991, although the transaction figures were falling since the spring of 1990. The present reversal seems anavoidable. First, because the interest rates are going to increase, even by a small amount. And also because the buyers cannot afford a further mortgage duration increase.
